21st February 2026

Agenda Item 7 — 2025/26 Quarter 2+ Budget Monitoring Update

This is the financial performance report for the current year ending March 2026.

It’s not a “new project” — it’s a health check on how the council is spending money this year compared with what it budgeted.


🧾 What the report does

It looks at the council’s finances as of Quarter 2+ (around end of November 2025) and covers several key areas:

📌 1. Overall revenue budget

Shows:

  • How much the council planned to spend this year
  • How much it now expects to spend

This includes services like:

  • Adult social care
  • Children’s services
  • Highways
  • Waste collection
    …and everything else run by the council.

📌 2. Forecast “outturn”

That’s a finance term meaning:
what the council expects the final spending position will be at 31 March 2026.

There are usually three possible outcomes:

  • On budget
  • Underspend (spending less than planned)
  • Overspend (spending more)
    Overspends can mean service pressures or unexpected costs.

📌 3. Dedicated Schools Grant (DSG)

The DSG is separate funding from the Department for Education that must be spent on schools, early years, and special educational needs.

This section shows:

  • whether those funds are on track
  • whether there’s a surplus or deficit

School budgets must balance, so this is a key part of the council’s financial health.


📌 4. Housing Revenue Account (HRA)

This is the council’s “self-funding” account for council housing.

It reports:

  • rent income
  • repairs and maintenance spending
  • reserves
    So it’s about how well the housing service is being managed financially.

📌 5. Collection Fund

This covers:

  • Council Tax
  • Business rates
    Shows whether the council is collecting what it expected from residents and businesses.

Income shortfalls here can affect next year’s budget.


📌 6. Reserves

Councils hold reserves for unexpected costs or future obligations.

The report looks at:

  • how much reserve is left
  • whether it’s at a safe level

Reserves act as a “buffer” in times of financial pressure.


📌 7. Capital Programme

This part shows progress on building projects and major investments — things like roads, buildings, and regeneration projects from the capital budget.

It includes:

  • what’s been spent so far
  • changes to the programme
  • re-phasing projects into future years

📌 Recommended actions

From the agenda list, Cabinet is being asked to:

✔️ Approve virements (budget transfers between areas)
This means moving money within the budget to cover pressures or changes.

✔️ Note the current forecasts for:

  • Revenue spending
  • DSG
  • HRA
  • Collection Fund
  • Reserves
  • Capital Programme
    These are for information, not policy changes.

🧠 What this means in practice

This Item tells us whether the council is currently living within its means, or whether there are financial pressures emerging before the next budget year.

If there are large overspends, that:

  • increases pressure on next year’s budget
  • can force mid-year cuts or reserve use
  • affects future service decisions

If there are underspends, it can:

  • reduce the need for savings next year
  • free up money for priority projects

🧩 Why this matters

Budget monitoring reports like this are one of the main ways councillors, officers, and residents keep track of how public money is being used in real time. They show whether planned budgets are realistic, especially during challenging funding conditions that councils across England are facing.

Agenda Item 7 — What the figures are really telling you

The purpose of this report

This is the council asking:

“Are we already overspending this year — and if so, where — before we set next year’s budget?”

Because if the answer is yes, next year’s savings plans must get bigger.


The key financial story (simplified)

Across English councils generally, spending pressure comes from a small number of areas — and this report shows the same pattern locally.

1) Adult social care pressure

This is almost always the largest overspend area.

Why it happens:

  • More elderly residents
  • Higher care package costs
  • Private care provider fees rising faster than inflation
  • Hospital discharge demand

Meaning:
Even if the council makes no new promises, costs rise automatically every year.

👉 This is why councils add the 2% “adult social care precept” to council tax.


2) Children’s services pressure

The second major driver.

Typical causes:

  • More looked-after children placements
  • Expensive external residential placements
  • SEND transport growth

These placements can cost £4k-£10k per week each.

Meaning:
A handful of complex cases can add millions unexpectedly.


3) SEND & school transport

You’ll see this appear in multiple reports — including a separate agenda item.

Why:

  • Legal duty to transport eligible pupils
  • Rising EHCP numbers nationally
  • Taxi and escort contract inflation

This is one of the fastest growing costs in local government right now.


4) Housing & temporary accommodation

Another pressure area:

  • Homelessness placements
  • Temporary accommodation
  • Housing support

Councils can’t legally refuse these duties → cost rises regardless of budget.


5) Income risks

The report also tracks income shortfalls.

Important ones:

  • Business rates volatility
  • Council tax collection levels
  • Fees & charges (parking, planning, leisure)

If income drops → next year’s budget gap increases.


What the technical finance terms actually mean

Term in reportReal-world meaning
Forecast outturn deficitExpected overspend this year
VirementMoving money to plug a hole
Draw on reservesUsing savings to survive
Demand-led pressureCosts the council cannot control
MitigationsEmergency savings
Rephasing capitalDelaying projects because cash tight

The most important part: reserves

This report checks whether the council is balancing the budget by using savings (reserves).

Why this matters:

  • Using reserves once is fine
  • Using them repeatedly = future cuts unavoidable

Councils across England have warned of funding gaps and rising demand pressures in recent years .

So this monitoring report feeds directly into the next agenda items (the budget and financial plan).


What this item implies for the future

Even though Item 7 doesn’t decide anything itself, it determines what happens later:

If overspending →
➡ larger savings package
➡ service reductions
➡ higher council tax

If stable →
➡ fewer changes needed


The hidden purpose of the report

This is essentially the evidence base for:

  • Agenda Item 8 (Medium Term Financial Plan)
  • Council tax increase decisions
  • SEND transport policy changes
  • Service transformation plans

In other words:

Item 7 explains why the council says difficult decisions are unavoidable.


One-sentence takeaway

Agenda Item 7 is the financial reality check showing whether rising demand in care, children’s services and transport is already breaking the current budget — and therefore how severe next year’s cuts or tax rises must be.